international-politics american-politics

The Plot

Misc

  • Trump said he was gonna blow up their energy facilities on Monday (March 30) and it just didn’t happen

Strait of Hormuz

  • waterway between Iran and Oman, 39 KM at its most narrow
    • Also UAE sorta
  • resources that pass through (global scale)
    • 20% of the world’s oil
      • 15 million barrels per day in 2025
      • 20% of LNG
      • 25% of seaborne oil trade
      • 85% goes to Asia (Japan, India, South Korea, China)
        • especially problematic for India and China
    • up to 30% of internationally traded fertilizers
      • 30-35% of global urea exports
      • 20-30% of ammonia
  • Iran has threatened to close it multiple times, this is the first time they’ve actually gotten involved
  • fun fact - Saddam Hussein attacked Iranian shipping hoping they would close the Strait, which he thought would cause American intervention
  • alternate shipping routes
    • Iraq Pipeline through Saudi Arabia (IPSA) could transport 1.65 million barrels from Iraq to the Red Sea
    • Habshan-Fujairah oil pipeline could transport 2 million barrels from the UAE to after the Strait, which the UAE is currently working to improve

Kharg Island

  • way deep in the Persian Gulf
  • 25 km off the coast of Iran
  • sea port of up to 90% of Iran’s oil products
    • includes fertilizers
  • storage for up to 30 million barrels of oil
  • Trump has talked about trying to seize it, but apparently Iran has an appetite for attacking it and tanking the self-hit, and it’s so close to Iran that there’s not much America could do to stop them, if they can take it in the first place
    • If the US does take it, Iran would probably try to attack energy infrastructure across the ME